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HOT OR COLD? What to expect in Toronto's condo market in 2021

Toronto’s housing market has been riding high for about 15 years now. When the COVID-19 pandemic touched down on these shores at around this time last year, many of the glass-half-empty types started predicting that Toronto’s real estate bubble would finally burst. But it did not burst, and today Toronto’s market is back on its steady climb to who knows where, just like the TSX, Nasdaq, S&P 500 and other indices of sound financial health.

How does Toronto keep outperforming these dour expectations? It’s largely a matter of supply and demand, combined with historically low interest rates. Despite all the cranes towering amidst our impressive skyline, demand remains steady relative to supply, and this will continue to be true in particular for the condominium market. Toronto’s supply issues stretch back a decade, and we’re still not close to catching up.

I’ve seen this demand remain steady first-hand through RAD Marketing’s work with a couple of exciting communities located in different desirable pockets of the city. The KING Toronto community by Westbank Corp. would be a hot commodity even in the coldest of times; the development’s inspired glass-block design by starchitect Bjarke Ingels is creating ripples of excitement and steady sales from across the globe. The 900 St.Clair West condominium community by Canderel is another ongoing success for infusing a breath of fresh air on the cusp of Forest Hill. Appealing to a range of buyers, St.Clair West’s suites are right-sized for those looking to move up or down in this sought-after area.

Pandemic or not, it’s easy to see why Toronto’s condo market still shows so much potential. Immigration may have slowed down, but just wait until it picks up again: Canada is projected to welcome 401,000 new permanent residents in 2021, 411,000 in 2022 and 421,000 in 2023.[1] As Canada’s economic heart and most diverse employment metropolis, we can expect Toronto to absorb a healthy number of those 1.2 million+ future residents.

What about all those people we hear about that have been moving away from the city core? I see it as a short-term trend that will not bear much influence on Toronto’s condo market. In fact, the global management consulting firm Kearney’s issued their Global Cities Outlook rankings — which determine "cities on the rise" — and Toronto ranks second in the world, behind only London, U.K.[2]

If anything, I’m experiencing even greater demand for a few of the developments RAD Marketing has on the horizon. Canderel’s elegantly designed Bayview at The Village is launching this spring in the tony Bayview Village neighbourhood; between its ideal location and the limited supply in the area, a condo like this practically lives outside market forces. Another sought-after building is One Delisle by Slate Developments which is also creating quite the buzz for its daring architecture by Jeanne Gang of world renowned architectural firm, Studio Gang. This project will set a new bar for design excellence in a neighbourhood bordered by Rosedale, Forest Hill, Summerhill and Deer Park – all of which have experienced a serious shortage of condominium supply since 2015.

Meanwhile, Canadians are stockpiling… their savings. Unable to spend their money on travel and hospitality, people have been padding their bank accounts.[3] In fact, a recent CIBC Capital Markets report said households and businesses are sitting on no less than $170-billion in excess cash.[4]

Toronto’s condo market isn’t the only thing that I forecast to enjoy a bright and successful future. We’re about to enjoy a steady supply of COVID-19 vaccines, and once they’re administered en masse, my glass-half-full outlook will be practically overflowing with eagerness and ambition for a strong conclusion to 2021.

Original article seen in Condo Life

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